Is a classic car a good investment?

There is an ongoing debate on whether classic cars are good investments. A recent catalogue from "Oldtimer Markt" with market prices covering 4'500 models and comparing these prices with the price when new triggered some analysis on my side. I selected a few models and compared an indexed price when new with the current market price for a "condition 2" car, something that is usually to find in the market and is a well maintained car. Given this data you can draw a number of conclusions.

• There is no real correlation between age and financial gain you can make with a car. However it is clear that it is very difficult to make money with more recent cars.
• There is no real correlation between the price level of the new car and the return on investment. However very cheap cars have difficulties to produce high returns as they lack exclusivity.
  
• It's probably not very obvious what car will become a pearl when they are new. Actually cars with really good returns on investment probably were not really loved when they were new. Other cars you would expect to be good investments aren't.
  
• When moderate maintenance costs are included (to keep the car in the needed condition to remain a valuable investment) then most car fall short of being a great investment. Exceptions in my sample are Ferrari 250 GT SWB, AC Cobra 427/289, Aston Martin DB4 GT Touring, Ferrari 275 GT/B 4, Bizzarini/Grifo A3/C Strada, Porsche 356 B1600 GS GTL or the Ford Mustang Shelby GT 500. Including more costs like insurance, storage space, etc. makes the story worse.
• To really make a competitive return on cars over a longer period only few cars qualify.
• Interestingly cars were rather "cheap" in the past. Even when you apply cost of living indexes and the likes a Ferrari 250 GT SWB would be less than 90'000 Euros today. The comparable F40 however was sold much more expensive and by the way delivers a negative return until today.
  

Now, very few people who want to make money with cars, buy them new and keep them until they can sell them with a decent return. A much better performance can be achieved buying the cars mildly used at the lowest point of their price curve. Using this tactics good money could be made with many competition cars and also many exclusive sports car over the last 10 years. But that's another story.

One additional point to make - buying cars to make money is not what I would recommend. People should buy classic cars because of passion and because the want to drive them. A positive return on investment should just be a nice add-on.

Here's the list of cars analyzed:

Car Indexed price (€) Gain/loss per annum Gain/loss incl. Maintenance
Ferrari 250 GT SWB 87'585 38% 28%
AC Cobra 427 49'950 22% 19%
AC Cobra 289 39'455 18% 14%
Aston Martin DB4 GT Touring 87'532 14% 9%
Ferrari 275 GT/B 4 86'645 20% 9%
Bizzarini/Grifo A3/C Strada 86'748 11% 6%
Porsche 356 B1600 GS GTL 37'452 29% 4%
Ford Mustang Shelby GT 500 33'194 7% 3%
Allard J2X 48'600 3% 0%
Porsche 911 Carrera RS Touring 47'925 8% -1%
Alfa-Romeo 1900 C Super Sprint 60'750 0% -2%
Ferraro 250 GT/L (Lusso) 88'055 8% -3%
Chevrolet Corvette Stingray Convertible 56'782 0% -3%
Aston Martin DB4 73'161 3% -3%
Mercedes 190 SL 31'821 2% -3%
Audi Sport Quatto 175'500 -2% -3%
Alpine-Renault A110 1600 S 31'909 1% -4%
TVR Griffith 200 31'529 1% -4%
Lancia 037 Rallye Stradale 65'007 3% -4%
Mercedes 300 SL Gullwing 55'929 13% -4%
BMW M1 94'737 1% -4%
Ferrari F40 374'625 -2% -4%
Toyota 2000 GT 49'844 5% -4%
Porsche 959 378'000 -2% -5%
Rolls Royce Corniche 181'587 -2% -5%
Lamborghini Mirua P400 S 106'179 4% -5%
Mercedes 300 SL (R107) 58'122 -2% -5%
Alfa-Romeo Giulietta Spider Veloce (101) 29'526 0% -5%
Ferrari Dino 246 GT 58'996 3% -5%
BMW Z1 72'000 -3% -5%
Sunbeam Tiger Mk1 28'655 0% -5%
Maserati Ghibli SS Spider 123'424 2% -5%
TVR 3000 S 33'382 -1% -5%
Aston Martin DBS 113'613 -2% -6%
Mercedes 350 SL 36'873 -1% -6%
VW Käfer Export 13'886 0% -6%
Honda NSX 98'873 -4% -6%
Monteverdi High Speed 375 L Hemi 92'045 -1% -6%
Mercedes 280 SE 3.5 51'916 2% -6%
Ferrari 365 GTB/4 Daytona 99'048 3% -6%
De Tomaso Mangusta 81'000 -1% -6%
DKW Monza 20'154 1% -7%
Datsum 240 Z 26'325 -1% -7%
Triumph TR3 18'804 1% -7%
Ford Capri 2600 RS 22'813 -1% -7%
Porsche 911 Turbo 74'025 -1% -7%
Jaguar XK 120OTS 48'600 1% -8%
Jaguar E-Type 3.8 S Convertible 45'290 1% -9%
TVR Grantura MK2 17'768 0% -9%
Ferrari 512 BB 104'073 0% -9%
Maserati Ghibli SS 118'313 -1% -9%
Lotus Elite SE 44'743 1% -9%
Lotus Esprit S2.2 51'998 -2% -11%
Porsche 356 C Carrera 2 43'026 11% -11%
Honda S800 Convertible 12'309 1% -11%
Mercedes 280 SL Pagoda 35'871 1% -11%
BMW 3.0 CSL (bat mobile) 29'430 3% -12%
Austin Healey Sprite Mk1 12'176 0% -12%
Porsche 356 A Speedster 22'950 6% -14%
Porsche 356 A 1600 S 26'614 2% -15%
Lotus Elan S3 Convertible 29'945 0% -15%
Morgan Plus 8 (Moss) 26'392 1% -16%
Porsche 914/6 27'289 0% -16%
MG A Twincam Roadster 22'661 2% -18%
Lancia Thema 8.32 65'340 -4% -19%
Fiat 124 Abarth Rally Stradale 20'864 0% -22%
NSU TTS 11'571 2% -37%